Lower infant mortality, higher household size, and more access to contraception reduce fertility in low- and middle-income nations.

Although average contraceptive use has increased globally in recent decades, an estimated 222 million (26%) of women of child-bearing age worldwide face an unmet need for family planning-defined as a discrepancy between fertility preferences and contraception practice, or failing to translate desires to avoid pregnancy into preventative behaviours and practices. While many studies have reported relationships between availability/quality of contraception and family planning, infant mortality, and fertility, these relationships have not been evaluated quantitatively across a broad range of low- and middle-income countries. Using publicly available data from 64 low- and middle-income countries, we collated test and control variables in six themes: (i) availability of family planning, (ii) quality of family planning, (iii) female education, (iv) religion, (v) mortality, and (vi) socio-economic conditions. We predicted that higher nation-level availability/quality of family-planning services and female education reduce average fertility, whereas higher infant mortality, greater household size (a proxy for population density), and religious adherence increase it. Given the sample size, we first constructed general linear models to test for relationships between fertility and the variables from each theme, from which we retained those with the highest explanatory power within a final general linear model set to determine the partial correlation of dominant test variables. We also applied boosted regression trees, generalised least-squares models, and generalised linear mixed-effects models to account for non-linearity and spatial autocorrelation. On average among all countries, we found the strongest associations between fertility and infant mortality, household size, and access to any form of contraception. Higher infant mortality and household size increased fertility, whereas greater access to any form of contraception decreased fertility. Female education, home visitations by health workers, quality of family planning, and religious adherence all had weak, if any, explanatory power. Our models suggest that decreasing infant mortality, ensuring sufficient housing to reduce household size, and increasing access to contraception will have the greatest effect on decreasing global fertility. We thus provide new evidence that progressing the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals for reducing infant mortality can be accelerated by increasing access to family planning.

Dynamics of internal migration in Bangladesh: Trends, patterns, determinants, and causes.

INTRODUCTION: Internal migration is essential to understand the population dynamics and the multifaceted relationship between population and development of a nation. In Bangladesh, the study of international migration is more frequent due to its socioeconomic importance and data availability. However, the study of internal migration is less frequent as there lie complexities in measuring internal migration, and data are less available. Thus, this paper aimed to explore the dynamics of internal in Bangladesh. DATA AND METHODS: We utilized data from the Bangladesh Population and Housing Census 1991-2011. The number of internal migrants was estimated using the United Nations Manual on Methods of Measuring Internal Migration- Manual VI. District-wise lifetime and net internal migration rate were the dependent variables where several socioeconomic variables were used as independent variables. The correlation and the stepwise multiple linear regression analysis were employed. RESULTS: Dhaka, Gazipur, Narayanganj, and all the Divisional cities have the highest in-migration rate, whereas the northern and southern districts of Bangladesh have the highest out-migration rate. The regression model showed that activity rate appeared to be the strongest predictor (ß = 0.419, P<0.001) of net migration for 2011, followed by city corporation (ß = 0.275, P<0.01) and poverty rate (ß = -0.246, P<0.01). However, the lifetime internal migration rate was 9.8% in 2011. The pooled model (1991-2011) for lifetime internal migration showed that activity rate (ß = 0.408, P<0.001), population density (ß = 0.386, P<0.001), literacy rate (ß = 0.341, P<0.001), and city corporation (ß = 0.139, P<0.01) were the significant factors of internal migration. Marriage, looking for a job, employment/business, education, and natural calamities were the reasons for internal migration. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The destinations of migrants are few developed and urbanized cities which needs particular attention in policy planning. If the current migration trends continue, few cities will have an excessive population, which will increase density and pollution, thereby decreasing living standards. Thus, along with comprehensive urban planning, decentralization of government and private institutions must be ensured. Since the rural to urban migration rate is high, the findings recommend more development and concentration in the rural area. Finally, education, training, and work opportunities for migrants should be safeguarded in the area of origin.

Study on temporal and spatial differentiation of biocapacity in Shenyang from a multi-scale perspective.

Biocapacity of a region exhibits spatial differences owing to the limitations of regional scale and natural conditions. Based on the multi-scale perspective, we comprehensively studied and analyzed the temporal and spatial differences of the biocapacity of a region in an attempt to establish the groundwork for optimizing urban development and its utilization framework. By adopting the ecological footprint model along with multi-scale difference evaluation method, the municipal and county scales are incorporated into a unified analysis framework in this paper, thereby facilitating the exploration of the temporal and spatial differences in the biocapacity of Shenyang-a city in China-from 2005 to 2019. The results demonstrated that: 1) At the municipal scale, the biocapacity per capita fluctuated between 1.35 hm2/person and 2.22 hm2/person. It revealed an "up-down-up" trend, which appeared consistent with the Kuznets cycle; at the county scale, the biocapacity depicted spatial differences, while those of downtown and surrounding districts/counties developed a two-level ascending hierarchical structure. 2) The time series of footprint size and depth first ascended and then declined, and can be classified into four types: closed type, inverted U-type, S-type, and M-type. Among them, S-type and M-type have the phenomenon of over-utilizing the stock capital. 3) For a long time, the regional difference of biocapacity has mostly dwelt on two scales with an evident scale effect, and the biocapacity of Liaozhong District was the worst.

The interaction effects of automation and population aging on labor market.

Automation and population aging are two major forces that will shape the nature of works in the future. However, it is not clear how these forces will interact with each other and affect the labor market. This paper examines the interaction effects of computerization and population aging on the labor market. We found that computerization and population aging have large and statistically significant effects on employment growth but not earnings growth. Also, their interaction terms are statistically significant only for employment growth but not for earnings growth.

Instrumento para identificar barreras ambientales percibidas por personas mayores en el contexto cubano / An Instrument for Identifying Environmental Barriers Perceived by Elderly People in the Cuban Context

Introducción: El envejecimiento de la población cubana trae aparejado un aumento de la discapacidad. En este sentido la Clasificación Internacional del Funcionamiento, de la Discapacidad y la Salud recomienda el diseño de instrumentos de medición que identifiquen los factores ambientales que afectan la funcionalidad. Objetivo: Describir las propiedades psicométricas de un instrumento de medición diseñado para identificar barreras ambientales percibidas por las personas mayores en el contexto cubano en cuanto a la validez de apariencia, de contenido y constructo. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio de desarrollo tecnológico. Se consultó a un grupo de expertos para la validación de apariencia y contenido, y se calculó el coeficiente de validez de contenido insesgado y corregido. Para la validez de constructo se calculó el análisis factorial de los componentes principales. Resultados: El coeficiente de validez de contenido insesgado y el corregido mostraron cifras superiores a 0,80, considerado como bueno. El análisis factorial arrojó siete factores que explican las dimensiones exploradas en la definición que se pretende medir. Conclusiones: El instrumento diseñado mostró un alto acuerdo entre los expertos en cuanto a la validez de apariencia y contenido. Los indicadores evidenciaron que el instrumento tiene una estructura multidimensional que se corresponde con el constructo que se pretende medir(AU)

Introduction: The aging of the Cuban population brings about an increase in disability. In this sense, the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health recommends the design of measurement instruments to identify environmental factors affecting functionality. Objective: To describe, in terms of face, content and construct validity, the psychometric properties of a measurement instrument designed to identify environmental barriers perceived by elderly people in the Cuban context. Methods: A technological development study was carried out. A group of experts was consulted for the face and content validation, while the unbiased and corrected content validity coefficient was calculated. For construct validity, principal component factor analysis was calculated. Results: The unbiased and corrected content validity coefficient showed figures above 0.80, considered as good. Factor analysis yielded seven factors that explain the dimensions explored in the definition intended to be measured. Conclusions: The designed instrument showed high agreement among the experts in terms of face and content validity. The indicators showed that the instrument has a multidimensional structure that corresponds to the construct that it is intended to measure(AU)

Understanding longevity in Hong Kong: a comparative study with long-living, high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Since 2013, Hong Kong has sustained the world's highest life expectancy at birth-a key indicator of population health. The reasons behind this achievement remain poorly understood but are of great relevance to both rapidly developing and high-income regions. Here, we aim to compare factors behind Hong Kong's survival advantage over long-living, high-income countries. METHODS: Life expectancy data from 1960-2020 were obtained for 18 high-income countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development from the Human Mortality Database and for Hong Kong from Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department. Causes of death data from 1950-2016 were obtained from WHO's Mortality Database. We used truncated cross-sectional average length of life (TCAL) to identify the contributions to survival differences based on 263 million deaths overall. As smoking is the leading cause of premature death, we also compared smoking-attributable mortality between Hong Kong and the high-income countries. FINDINGS: From 1979-2016, Hong Kong accumulated a substantial survival advantage over high-income countries, with a difference of 1·86 years (95% CI 1·83-1·89) for males and 2·50 years (2·47-2·53) for females. As mortality from infectious diseases declined, the main contributors to Hong Kong's survival advantage were lower mortality from cardiovascular diseases for both males (TCAL difference 1·22 years, 95% CI 1·21-1·23) and females (1·19 years, 1·18-1·21), cancer for females (0·47 years, 0·45-0·48), and transport accidents for males (0·27 years, 0·27-0·28). Among high-income populations, Hong Kong recorded the lowest cardiovascular mortality and one of the lowest cancer mortalities in women. These findings were underpinned by the lowest absolute smoking-attributable mortality in high-income regions (39·7 per 100 000 in 2016, 95% CI 34·4-45·0). Reduced smoking-attributable mortality contributed to 50·5% (0·94 years, 0·93-0·95) of Hong Kong's survival advantage over males in high-income countries and 34·8% (0·87 years, 0·87-0·88) of it in females. INTERPRETATION: Hong Kong's leading longevity is the result of fewer diseases of poverty while suppressing the diseases of affluence. A unique combination of economic prosperity and low levels of smoking with development contributed to this achievement. As such, it offers a framework that could be replicated through deliberate policies in developing and developed populations globally. FUNDING: Early Career Scheme (RGC ECS Grant #27602415), Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee of Hong Kong.

COVID-19 and the value of safe transport in the United States.

We investigate the connection between the choice of transportation mode used by commuters and the probability of COVID-19 transmission. This interplay might influence the choice of transportation means for years to come. We present data on commuting, socioeconomic factors, and COVID-19 disease incidence for several US metropolitan areas. The data highlights important connections between population density and mobility, public transportation use, race, and increased likelihood of transmission. We use a transportation model to highlight the effect of uncertainty about transmission on the commuters' choice of transportation means. Using multiple estimation techniques, we found strong evidence that public transit ridership in several US metro areas has been considerably impacted by COVID-19 and by the policy responses to the pandemic. Concerns about disease transmission had a negative effect on ridership, which is over and above the adverse effect from the observed reduction in employment. The COVID-19 effect is likely to reduce the demand for public transport in favor of lower density alternatives. This change relative to the status quo will have implications for fuel use, congestion, accident frequency, and air quality. More vulnerable communities might be disproportionally affected as a result. We point to the need for additional studies to further quantify these effects and to assist policy in planning for the post-COVID-19 transportation future.

Socioeconomic determinants of cumulative fertility in Ghana.

The pace of decline in fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa appears to have slowed or stalled in the last few decades. This study examines the socioeconomic associated with cumulative fertility in Ghana. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate determinants of cumulative fertility using data from the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys of 2003, 2008, and 2014. The composition of children ever born by women did not change considerably over the study periods. Socioeconomic disparities in educational attainment, household wealth, employment, and employer status are significantly associated with cumulative fertility risks in Ghana. The current age of women, age at sexual debut, and marital status, among others, are also linked to cumulative fertility levels. Place and region of residence are also linked to fertility in Ghana. Cumulative fertility levels in Ghana are underscored by considerable socioeconomic disparities among women of reproductive age. Fertility regulation policies should hinge on improving the socio-economic wellbeing of women in Ghana.

Planning for tomorrow: global cancer incidence and the role of prevention 2020-2070.

Cancer is currently the first or second most common contributor to premature mortality in most countries of the world. The global number of patients with cancer is expected to rise over the next 50 years owing to the strong influence of demographic changes, such as population ageing and growth, on the diverging trends in cancer incidence in different regions. Assuming that the latest incidence trends continue for the major cancer types, we predict a doubling of the incidence of all cancers combined by 2070 relative to 2020. The greatest increases are predicted in lower-resource settings, in countries currently assigned a low Human Development Index (HDI), whereas the predicted increases in national burden diminish with increasing levels of national HDI. Herein, we assess studies modelling the future burden of cancer that underscore how comprehensive cancer prevention strategies can markedly reduce the prevalence of major risk factors and, in so doing, the number of future cancer cases. Focusing on an in-depth assessment of prevention strategies that target tobacco smoking, overweight and obesity, and human papillomavirus infection, we discuss how stepwise, population-level approaches with amenable goals can avert millions of future cancer diagnoses worldwide. In the absence of a step-change in cancer prevention delivery, tobacco smoking will remain the leading preventable cause of cancer, and overweight and obesity might well present a comparable opportunity for prevention, given its increasing prevalence globally in the past few decades. Countries must therefore instigate national cancer control programmes aimed at preventing cancer, and with some urgency, if such programmes are to yield the desired public health and economic benefits in this century.

Associations between changes in population mobility in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and socioeconomic factors at the city level in China and country level worldwide: a retrospective, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Until broad vaccination coverage is reached and effective therapeutics are available, controlling population mobility (ie, changes in the spatial location of a population that affect the spread and distribution of pathogens) is one of the major interventions used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. However, population mobility differs across locations, which could reduce the effectiveness of pandemic control measures. Here we assess the extent to which socioeconomic factors are associated with reductions in population mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic, at both the city level in China and at the country level worldwide. METHODS: In this retrospective, observational study, we obtained anonymised daily mobile phone location data for 358 Chinese cities from Baidu, and for 121 countries from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. We assessed the intra-city movement intensity, inflow intensity, and outflow intensity of each Chinese city between Jan 25 (when the national emergency response was implemented) and Feb 18, 2020 (when population mobility was lowest) and compared these data to the corresponding lunar calendar period from the previous year (Feb 5 to March 1, 2019). Chinese cities were classified into four socioeconomic index (SEI) groups (high SEI, high-middle SEI, middle SEI, and low SEI) and the association between socioeconomic factors and changes in population mobility were assessed using univariate and multivariable linear regression. At the country level, we compared six types of mobility (residential, transit stations, workplaces, retail and recreation, parks, and groceries and pharmacies) 35 days after the implementation of the national emergency response in each country and compared these to data from the same day of the week in the baseline period (Jan 3 to Feb 6, 2020). We assessed associations between changes in the six types of mobility and the country's sociodemographic index using univariate and multivariable linear regression. FINDINGS: The reduction in intra-city movement intensity in China was stronger in cities with a higher SEI than in those with a lower SEI (r=-0·47, p<0·0001). However, reductions in inter-city movement flow (both inflow and outflow intensity) were not associated with SEI and were only associated with government control measures. In the country-level analysis, countries with higher sociodemographic and Universal Health Coverage indexes had greater reductions in population mobility (ie, in transit stations, workplaces, and retail and recreation) following national emergency declarations than those with lower sociodemographic and Universal Health Coverage indexes. A higher sociodemographic index showed a greater reduction in mobility in transit stations (r=-0·27, p=0·0028), workplaces (r=-0·34, p=0·0002), and areas retail and recreation (rxs=-0·30, p=0·0012) than those with a lower sociodemographic index. INTERPRETATION: Although COVID-19 outbreaks are more frequently reported in larger cities, our analysis shows that future policies should prioritise the reduction of risks in areas with a low socioeconomic level-eg, by providing financial assistance and improving public health messaging. However, our study design only allows us to assess associations, and a long-term study is needed to decipher causality. FUNDING: Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Research Council of Norway, Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission, Beijing Natural Science Foundation, Beijing Advanced Innovation Program for Land Surface Science, National Natural Science Foundation of China, China Association for Science and Technology.

The persistence of ancient settlements and urban sustainability.

We propose a dedicated research effort on the determinants of settlement persistence in the ancient world, with the potential to significantly advance the scientific understanding of urban sustainability today. Settlements (cities, towns, villages) are locations with two key attributes: They frame human interactions and activities in space, and they are where people dwell or live. Sustainability, in this case, focuses on the capacity of structures and functions of a settlement system (geography, demography, institutions) to provide for continuity of safe habitation. The 7,000-y-old experience of urbanism, as revealed by archaeology and history, includes many instances of settlements and settlement systems enduring, adapting to, or generating environmental, institutional, and technological changes. The field of urban sustainability lacks a firm scientific foundation for understanding the long durée, relying instead on narratives of collapse informed by limited case studies. We argue for the development of a new interdisciplinary research effort to establish scientific understanding of settlement and settlement system persistence. Such an effort would build upon the many fields that study human settlements to develop new theories and databases from the extensive documentation of ancient and premodern urban systems. A scientific foundation will generate novel insights to advance the field of urban sustainability.

Urban attractors: Discovering patterns in regions of attraction in cities.

Understanding the dynamics by which urban areas attract visitors is important in today's cities that are continuously increasing in population towards higher densities. Identifying services that relate to highly attractive districts is useful to make policies regarding the placement of such places. Thus, we present a framework for classifying districts in cities by their attractiveness to daily commuters and relating Points of Interests (POIs) types to districts' attraction patterns. We used Origin-Destination matrices (ODs) mined from cell phone data that capture the flow of trips between each pair of places in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. We define the attraction profile for a place based on three main statistical features: The number of visitors a place received, the distribution of distance traveled by visitors on the road network, and the spatial spread of locations from where trips started. We used a hierarchical clustering algorithm to classify all places in the city by their features of attraction. We discovered three main types of Urban Attractors in Riyadh during the morning period: Global, which are significant places in the city, Downtown, which contains the central business district, and Residential attractors. In addition, we uncovered what makes districts possess certain attraction patterns. We used a statistical significance testing approach to quantify the relationship between Points of Interests (POIs) types (services) and the patterns of Urban Attractors detected.

Relationships between migration and the fiscal sustainability of the pension system in China.

There are a few existing studies on whether domestic migration improves China's pension system's fiscal sustainability in the context of rapid urbanization and industrialization. In this paper, we systematically investigate the impact of migration on the solvency of the worker's old-age insurance for urban employees by constructing actuarial and econometric models. We use panel data from 2002 to 2018, collected from 31 provinces in China. The results show that the association between migration and the solvency of pensions is an inverted-U shape along the urbanization process. Further regional comparison showed that the above-stated inverted-U curve is more pronounced in the central and western regions. We also established that the number of participants and the contribution base are the main contributors to these results. Our conclusions are important for future population policies and public pension systems in China.

User demands analysis of Eco-city based on the Kano model-An application to China case study.

Eco-cities have witnessed rapid growth in these years worldwide. As the Eco-cities entering operation stage gradually, more and more researchers have found that users (who are living or working in the Eco-cities) satisfaction is one of the most important factors to determine the success or failure of Eco-cities. Therefore, it is very important to investigate the user demands to attract more citizens willing to live or work in the Eco-cities, which will make the development of Eco-cities more sustainable and solid. The recent researches on user demands investigation and analysis in the Eco-cities mainly focused on understanding the user need itself, yet lack of research on the relationship between the user demand and user satisfaction. This paper initially introduced the Kano model analysis method to the research field of user demands in Eco-city, to explore the relationship between the user demand and user satisfaction. After proposing user demands library in Eco-city (including Land use, Ecological environment, Green building, Energy utilization, etc.), the user demands classification and importance analysis methods of Eco-city were proposed based on Kano model. The questionnaire survey for users of two Eco-cities in China as case study was conducted, consisted of user demand items questionnaire based on the Kano model and a questionnaire on the importance of the user demand items. By utilizing the integration of quantitative analysis methods based on the Kano model and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, the final ranking of user demands importance was obtained. Comparing with the existing literatures in terms of user demands research for Eco-city, the user demands analysis method based on Kano model of this paper, is able to reveal the influence degree of user satisfaction towards the facilities and services provided in the Eco-city. The user demands analysis method can be used for other researchers worldwide to investigate and quantitively analyze user demands according to their local development situation and preference of Eco-city. The user demands analysis results obtained through this method, can benefit different stages of Eco-city.

Increasing Effectiveness of Genetically Modifying Mosquito Populations: Risk Assessment of Releasing Blood-Fed Females.

Releasing mosquito refractory to pathogens has been proposed as a means of controlling mosquito-borne diseases. A recent modeling study demonstrated that instead of the conventional male-only releases, adding blood-fed females to the release population could significantly increase the program's efficiency, hastening the decrease in disease transmission competence of the target mosquito population and reducing the duration and costs of the release program. However, releasing female mosquitoes presents a short-term risk of increased disease transmission. To quantify this risk, we constructed a Ross-MacDonald model and an individual-based stochastic model to estimate the increase in disease transmission contributed by the released blood-fed females, using the mosquito Aedes aegypti and the dengue virus as a model system. Under baseline parameter values informed by empirical data, our stochastic models predicted a 1.1-5.5% increase in dengue transmission during the initial release, depending on the resistance level of released mosquitoes and release size. The basic reproductive number (R0) increased by 0.45-3.62%. The stochastic simulations were then extended to 10 releases to evaluate the long-term effect. The overall reduction of disease transmission was much greater than the number of potential infections directly contributed by the released females. Releasing blood-fed females with males could also outperform conventional male-only releases when the release strain is sufficiently resistant, and the release size is relatively small. Overall, these results suggested that the long-term benefit of releasing blood-fed females often outweighs the short-term risk.

Políticas públicas sobre envejecimiento poblacional promulgadas en el contexto internacional, europeo y español entre 1982-2017 / Public policies on population ageing enacted in the international, European and Spanish contexts from 1982 to 2017

Introducción: El envejecimiento poblacional, problema de relevancia mundial, requiere acción de parte de los organismos políticos y gobiernos. Objetivo: Exponer las principales políticas dirigidas a la atención del envejecimiento poblacional promulgadas en el contexto internacional, el europeo y en las comunidades autónomas españolas entre 1982 y 2017. Métodos: Se realizó un trabajo de revisión y análisis de documentos, que incluyó la búsqueda de fuentes primarias tales como: planes y estrategias oficiales, informes, bases de datos y legislaciones en relación con el tema del envejecimiento poblacional y el envejecimiento activo. La recogida de información se ejecutó de mayo a julio de 2017. Se utilizó la técnica de análisis de contenido para identificar las políticas en el contexto internacional. La ficha diagnóstica para el análisis de las estrategias, se confeccionó a partir de una adaptación de la ficha propuesta en la Estrategia Vasca de Envejecimiento Activo. Conclusiones: El paradigma de la Organización Mundial de la Salud sobre Envejecimiento Activo promulga la perspectiva de la salud, la participación y seguridad de las personas mayores. Marca un hito en la formulación de políticas y estrategias de trabajo a nivel internacional. Las comunidades autónomas españolas han proyectado diversas estrategias, pero se requiere lograr coordinación integrada de sus actuaciones(AU)

Introduction: Population ageing, a problem of global importance, requires actions by political bodies and governments. Objective: Present the main policies aimed to the care of the population aging enacted in the international, European and Spanish autonomous communities' contexts in the period from 1982 to 2017. Methods: A review and analysis of documents was carried out, which included the search for primary sources such as: official plans and strategies, reports, databases and legislation related to the issue of population ageing and active ageing. The information collection was carried out from May to July 2017. The content analysis technique was used to identify policies in the international context; the diagnostic sheet for the analysis of strategies was prepared on the basis of an adaptation of the card proposed in the Basque Active Ageing Strategy. Conclusions: The World Health Organization paradigm on Active Ageing promulgates the perspective of the health, participation and safety of the elderly. It marks a milestone in the formulation of policies and strategies for work at the international level. The Spanish Autonomous Communities have planned various strategies, but it is necessary to achieve integrated coordination of their actions(AU)

Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100-231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30-44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31-45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system.

Spatiotemporal matching between medical resources and population ageing in China from 2008 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Globally, the increasingly severe population ageing issue has been creating challenges in terms of medical resource allocation and public health policies. The aim of this study is to address the space-time trends of the population-ageing rate (PAR), the number of medical resources per thousand residents (NMRTR) in mainland China in the past 10 years, and to investigate the spatial and temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China. METHODS: The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was employed to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of PAR and NMRTR in mainland China over the past 10 years. Subsequently, a Bayesian Geo-Detector model was developed to evaluate the spatial and temporal matching levels between PAR and NMRTR at national level. The matching odds ratio (OR) index proposed in this paper was applied to measure the matching levels between the two terms in each provincial area. RESULTS: The Chinese spatial and temporal matching q-statistic values between the PAR and three vital types of NMRTR were all less than 0.45. Only the spatial matching Bayesian q-statistic values between the PAR and the number of beds in hospital reached 0.42 (95% credible interval: 0.37, 0.48) nationwide. Chongqing and Guizhou located in southwest China had the highest spatial and temporal matching ORs, respectively, between the PAR and the three types of NMRTR. The spatial pattern of the spatial and temporal matching ORs between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China exhibited distinct geographical features, but the geographical structure of the spatial matching differed from that of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR. CONCLUSION: The spatial and temporal matching degrees between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China were generally very low. The provincial regions with high PAR largely experienced relatively low spatial matching levels between the PAR and NMRTR, and vice versa. The geographical pattern of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR exhibited the feature of north-south differentiation.

Population change and the legacy of slavery.

Despite increasing evidence of a contemporary legacy of slavery in the US South, scholars do not have a clear empirical understanding of the ways in which demographic forces can alter local connections to racial histories. In this study, we examine the influence of long-run trends in population change on the relationship between historical slave concentration and contemporary black-white poverty inequality in the American South. We combine one century and a half of county-level population data, including estimates of the slave and total populations in 1860, estimates of black and white population change starting in 1880, and black-white poverty disparities from the 2011-2015 American Community Survey. Our results offer new empirical evidence regarding the enduring influence of racial histories over time, and suggest that white population increase between 1880 and 1910 was particularly influential in understanding the local connection between slave concentration and black-white inequality. Moreover, rather than disrupting the transmission of the legacy of slavery, results indicate that white population increase may have helped spread this legacy of racial inequality to other counties through diffusion processes. We find that while local historical legacies are persistent, they are not permanent, and population trends are a critical force shaping local racial inequality.